Gooner Capital White Paper

How Big Is the On-Chain Slice?

A quantitative analysis of creator economy migration to on-chain streaming platforms

Published: September 2025 Research Paper 15 min read

Executive Summary

Market Opportunity

$7.2B

OnlyFans GMV (2024) - our core serviceable addressable market for on-chain migration

Share Capture Target

1-5%

Penetration over 12-36 months equals $72M-$360M addressable on-chain flow

Investment Thesis

DAS > Sharpe

Distribution-Adjusted Sharpe outperforms traditional metrics via orderflow-in-attention

Core Thesis: Attention Is An Order Book

On-chain streaming platforms (exemplified by Pump.fun's integrated rails) fundamentally alter creator monetization by fusing content → price discovery → settlement into a single loop. This creates measurable orderflow-in-attention (OIA) that can be systematically monetized through market-neutral strategies, event-driven positioning, and systematic momentum capture.

Unlike legacy creator rails that tax attention through platform fees and delayed payouts, on-chain streaming enables fans to become market participants, creating time-boxed liquidity events with observable microstructure that institutional strategies can underwrite.

Market Sizing & Share-Capture Analysis

1. Defining the Addressable Market (SAM vs TAM)

We focus on the direct-to-fan, creator-monetized layer rather than the entire adult web ecosystem. Our serviceable addressable market (SAM) is anchored on platforms with transparent economics similar to on-chain streaming mechanics:

OnlyFans 2024 Performance

  • $7.2B in fan payments (GMV)
  • $1.4B platform revenue (~20% take rate)
  • 4.6M creators, 377.5M fans
  • $684M pre-tax profit
Sources: Financial Times, Business Insider, Yahoo Finance

2. Migration Mechanism: Why On-Chain Captures Share

Instant Settlement

Bonding curves and programmable incentives eliminate platform-taxed, delayed payouts

Fan Participation

Viewers become market participants, creating more surface area for spend and speculation

Transparent Microstructure

Observable depth, impact, and slippage enables institutional market-making strategies

3. Share-Capture Scenarios (12-36 Month Outlook)

Conservative (0.5-1.5%)

$36M - $108M GMV

Assumes UX friction, KYC drag, incremental fiat on-ramp improvements

Base Case (3%)

~$216M GMV

Creator tooling matures, streaming incentives standardize, key creators normalize the rail

Upside (5%)

~$360M GMV

Platform reliability + mainstream wallets, legal clarity, breakout cultural moments

Investment Thesis: The Gooner Flywheel

Unit Economics Inversion

Legacy Rails

~$150/week

Typical creator net income via subscription/CPM models with platform taxation

On-Chain Events

~$5K/night

Mid-tier creator potential during peak attention/liquidity alignment

*Illustrative figures; highly variable

Cultural Beta (βᶜ) Mispricing

Traditional platforms price attention as subscription/CPM. On-chain streams price attention as convex optionality (tokens, mints, LP points) and time-boxed liquidity events. The Creator Liquidity Premium (CLP) emerges when culture-driven flow meets market-maker inventory.

Expected Value Framework

EV(stream) ≈ f(Nactive, LTVon-chain, σattn, γliq)

Where σattn is attention volatility and γliq is liquidity convexity from token incentives

The Gooner Stack Implementation

1

Studio (Creator Partnerships)

Acquire distribution cheaply; design token-native stream mechanics

2

$GCM (Token)

Align community incentives and route dealflow/attention across the stack

3

Fund (Strategies)

Monetize flow via market-neutral & momentum playbooks; supply liquidity where culture trades

4

Labs (Research)

Instrument the rail; ship signals → faster feedback loops

Strategy Implementation

Market-Neutral Liquidity

Provide two-sided markets around stream events; warehouse inventory when rebates + basis > VaR

Event-Driven

Pre-position for creator drops; unwind into post-event mean reversion

Systematic Momentum

Ride trend regimes across creator & sector baskets with volatility targeting

Strategic Holdings

Own rails/tokens that compound the flywheel and lower creator CAC

Methodology & Key Metrics

Performance Metrics We Track

Creator Economics

  • CAC (Creator Acquisition Cost)
  • LTV (On-chain Lifetime Value)
  • Retention curves
  • Unique wallets per stream

Market Microstructure

  • Depth at top-of-book during events
  • Slippage per $1K notional
  • Cross-venue basis
  • Maker PnL per event

Proprietary Definitions

OIA (Orderflow-in-Attention)

Signed flow attributable to viewer→buyer conversion during livestream events

CLP (Creator Liquidity Premium)

Excess return observed when attention clears on-chain via incentives and transparent depth

DAS (Distribution-Adjusted Sharpe)

Expected Sharpe conditional on distribution access & designed incentive surfaces

Risk Factors & Mitigation

Regulatory Challenges

Risk: Age verification and regional compliance requirements

Mitigation: Embedded AML/KYC in wallets, region-gated access, exceed incumbent standards

UX Friction

Risk: Fiat ramps, chargebacks, wallet complexity

Mitigation: Abstracted on-ramps, custodial options, Web2-easy tooling

Platform Risk

Risk: Dependence on emerging infrastructure

Mitigation: Multi-platform strategy, own infrastructure development

Conclusion

A 1-5% penetration of the OnlyFans-like GMV over 12-36 months equates to $72M-$360M of serviceable on-chain volume—before counting alternative platforms. This represents a meaningful, hedge-fund-sized flow pool created purely by migrating how attention clears.

Our integrated stack captures value at the event, inventory, and narrative layers simultaneously through:

Systematic market-making around predictable creator events
Community-aligned token mechanics that reduce creator acquisition costs
Transparent on-chain microstructure enabling institutional-grade risk management

Investment Opportunity

Gooner Capital is positioned to capture alpha as creator monetization migrates on-chain, combining institutional execution with culture-native distribution.

Sources & References

Market Data

  • Financial Times — OnlyFans 2024 revenue $1.4B, pre-tax profit $684M, fan payments $7.2B
  • Business Insider — 2024 user/creator counts and platform revenue mechanics
  • Yahoo Finance — $7.22B gross fan payments confirmation
  • GlobeNewswire — Online adult entertainment market context ($70-76B 2023-24)

Platform Analysis

  • Forbes (Digital Assets) — Pump.fun mechanics: deployment, bonding curves, immediate trading
  • Wikipedia (Pump.fun) — Livestreaming feature history and 2025 relaunch
  • Bitget — Platform integration of live streaming and creator capital markets