A quantitative analysis of creator economy migration to on-chain streaming platforms
OnlyFans GMV (2024) - our core serviceable addressable market for on-chain migration
Penetration over 12-36 months equals $72M-$360M addressable on-chain flow
Distribution-Adjusted Sharpe outperforms traditional metrics via orderflow-in-attention
On-chain streaming platforms (exemplified by Pump.fun's integrated rails) fundamentally alter creator monetization by fusing content → price discovery → settlement into a single loop. This creates measurable orderflow-in-attention (OIA) that can be systematically monetized through market-neutral strategies, event-driven positioning, and systematic momentum capture.
Unlike legacy creator rails that tax attention through platform fees and delayed payouts, on-chain streaming enables fans to become market participants, creating time-boxed liquidity events with observable microstructure that institutional strategies can underwrite.
We focus on the direct-to-fan, creator-monetized layer rather than the entire adult web ecosystem. Our serviceable addressable market (SAM) is anchored on platforms with transparent economics similar to on-chain streaming mechanics:
Bonding curves and programmable incentives eliminate platform-taxed, delayed payouts
Viewers become market participants, creating more surface area for spend and speculation
Observable depth, impact, and slippage enables institutional market-making strategies
Assumes UX friction, KYC drag, incremental fiat on-ramp improvements
Creator tooling matures, streaming incentives standardize, key creators normalize the rail
Platform reliability + mainstream wallets, legal clarity, breakout cultural moments
Typical creator net income via subscription/CPM models with platform taxation
Mid-tier creator potential during peak attention/liquidity alignment
*Illustrative figures; highly variableTraditional platforms price attention as subscription/CPM. On-chain streams price attention as convex optionality (tokens, mints, LP points) and time-boxed liquidity events. The Creator Liquidity Premium (CLP) emerges when culture-driven flow meets market-maker inventory.
Where σattn is attention volatility and γliq is liquidity convexity from token incentives
Acquire distribution cheaply; design token-native stream mechanics
Align community incentives and route dealflow/attention across the stack
Monetize flow via market-neutral & momentum playbooks; supply liquidity where culture trades
Instrument the rail; ship signals → faster feedback loops
Provide two-sided markets around stream events; warehouse inventory when rebates + basis > VaR
Pre-position for creator drops; unwind into post-event mean reversion
Ride trend regimes across creator & sector baskets with volatility targeting
Own rails/tokens that compound the flywheel and lower creator CAC
Signed flow attributable to viewer→buyer conversion during livestream events
Excess return observed when attention clears on-chain via incentives and transparent depth
Expected Sharpe conditional on distribution access & designed incentive surfaces
Risk: Age verification and regional compliance requirements
Mitigation: Embedded AML/KYC in wallets, region-gated access, exceed incumbent standards
Risk: Fiat ramps, chargebacks, wallet complexity
Mitigation: Abstracted on-ramps, custodial options, Web2-easy tooling
Risk: Dependence on emerging infrastructure
Mitigation: Multi-platform strategy, own infrastructure development
A 1-5% penetration of the OnlyFans-like GMV over 12-36 months equates to $72M-$360M of serviceable on-chain volume—before counting alternative platforms. This represents a meaningful, hedge-fund-sized flow pool created purely by migrating how attention clears.
Our integrated stack captures value at the event, inventory, and narrative layers simultaneously through:
Gooner Capital is positioned to capture alpha as creator monetization migrates on-chain, combining institutional execution with culture-native distribution.